It's difficult to predict the result of any individual constituency, but here is my analysis of Chandrababu Naidu's son Nara Lokesh's chances of winning the mangalagiri assembly constituency in the 2024 ap elections:

- mangalagiri is considered a tdp stronghold and lokesh had won from here in the 2014 elections. However, in 2019 he lost to YSRCP candidate by a thin margin.

- As the leader of TDP's youth wing and son of veteran leader Chandrababu Naidu, lokesh enjoys considerable support in the constituency.

- His profile and active campaigning could swing support back towards tdp this time. The anti-incumbency factor may also work in his favor.

- However, the ruling YSRCP will pose a tough challenge. They are likely to field a strong candidate against Lokesh.

- local factors and candidate choice could influence the result along with the wider political atmosphere.

On balance, given it's a tdp bastion and Lokesh's influence, I predict he stands a very good chance of wresting back the mangalagiri seat from YSRCP in these elections. The mood seems to be shifting back towards tdp this time. But it will certainly be a closely fought battle. So while lokesh has an edge, the final outcome is still unpredictable. It could go either way.

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