What is the reason for more rain than normal?
The indian Meteorological Department (IMD) believes that there are many indications of a good monsoon this time. The first reason is the gradual weakening of El Nino. El Nino means warming of water in the central and eastern areas of the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts for 9 to 12 months. It affects the weather and storms around the world. El Nino, which began in june 2023, was most intense in december but is now weakening.
Whereas La Nina is exactly the opposite of El Nino, that is, the water in the central and eastern areas of the Pacific Ocean becomes cold. It also affects the weather. Apart from this, Positive indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a phenomenon occurring in the indian Ocean which affects the monsoon of Africa and Asia. At the same time, even if there is less snow than normal in the Northern Hemisphere, it still indicates that the monsoon will be good.
Records show that in most of the last 22 La Niña years since 1954, the summer monsoon was either 'normal' or 'above normal'. Only in 1974 and 2000 were monsoons "below normal" despite La Nina. Data from 1951 to 2023 show that of the nine years in which El Nino was followed by La Nina, the summer monsoon was 'above normal' in two years, 'excessive' in five years and 'deficient' in two years. I was a little more than 'normal'.
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