Former Pakistani ambassador Zafar Hilaly's televised claim that India has deployed 12 nuclear warheads on its Arihant-class submarines is, in India Herald's assessment, less a classified leak than a calculated information operation — a bid to frame Pakistan as the threatened party and justify renewed demands for Chinese and American strategic patronage, according to analysis of remarks reported by Navbharat Times.
Here is a number Pakistan wants the world to fixate on: twelve. Twelve nuclear warheads, allegedly perched inside the missile tubes of Indian Navy submarines prowling the Indian Ocean. Former Pakistani ambassador Zafar Hilaly dropped this figure on Pakistani television with the performative alarm of a man discovering fire — except the fire, if it exists at all in the shape he describes, has been burning quietly for years, and Islamabad has known about every ember.
According to Navbharat Times, Hilaly claimed that India has deployed 12 nuclear bombs aboard its Arihant-class submarines, completing what strategists call the "nuclear triad" — the ability to launch atomic weapons from land, air, and sea. He called it a grave threat to Pakistan. The claim ricocheted across Pakistani television panels and Indian defence commentary within hours. But strip away the studio lighting and the breathless graphics, and a harder question emerges: why this claim, and why now?
The Triad India Never Officially Confirmed — And Doesn't Need To
India's nuclear doctrine has always operated on a principle of deliberate ambiguity. New Delhi has never publicly confirmed how many warheads sit aboard its Arihant-class SSBNs — INS Arihant, INS Arighat, and the vessels reportedly under construction. The K-15 Sagarika and K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles are acknowledged capabilities, but operational deployment numbers remain classified, as they should be in any credible deterrent posture.
So where did Hilaly's precise figure of "12" come from? Not from any Indian government disclosure. Not from any verified Western intelligence assessment made public. The number appears to float in that convenient grey zone between plausible estimation and strategic fabrication — precise enough to sound authoritative on a television panel, vague enough to be impossible to verify or deny.
And that, in the grammar of information operations, is exactly the point.
Political Pulse
The whisper circulating in South Block corridors, according to defence circles familiar with India-Pakistan signalling, is that Islamabad's sudden "alarm" over India's submarine nuclear capability is not alarm at all — it is a rehearsed script. The talk among strategic affairs analysts in New Delhi is blunt: Pakistan is performing panic for an audience of two — Beijing and Washington.
Consider the timing. This claim surfaces not in a vacuum but in a period when Pakistan's diplomatic stock is at a generational low. The post-Pahalgam diplomatic offensive by India left Pakistan isolated in ways that even its traditional supporters found difficult to paper over. Simultaneously, as Navbharat Times separately reported, former Pakistani minister Abid Sher Ali threatened nuclear war on television if India stopped water under the Indus Waters Treaty — a statement so reckless it barely registered as strategy and landed closer to desperation.
Two former Pakistani officials, on television, within the same window, both invoking the nuclear spectre. One threatens nuclear war over water. The other waves the Indian submarine threat like a distress flag. In India Herald's assessment, this is not coincidence — it is coordinated escalation of rhetoric designed to achieve a specific transactional outcome.
The Real Audience: Not New Delhi, But the Chequebook Holders
Pakistan's economy is on life support — its IMF programme is its fiscal oxygen mask, its Chinese debt obligations are staggering, and its military procurement pipeline depends almost entirely on Beijing's willingness to extend credit. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, once the crown jewel, is now a source of quiet bilateral tension over repayments and security costs.
In this context, the "India has 12 nukes on submarines" narrative serves a very specific function: it reframes Pakistan not as a failing state seeking bailouts, but as a frontline state facing an existential nuclear threat from a larger neighbour. That framing has historically been the skeleton key to unlocking American military aid (remember the decades of F-16 diplomacy) and Chinese strategic investment.
The playbook is not new. Pakistan has played the victim card with remarkable discipline for decades — after every India-Pakistan crisis, the narrative pivots from "what did Pakistan do" to "look how threatened Pakistan is." The submarine claim fits this pattern with almost textbook precision.
What makes this iteration different is the desperation beneath it. Pakistan is not playing this card from a position of strategic confidence; it is playing it because very few other cards remain.
What India's Silence Actually Says
New Delhi's response to Hilaly's claim has been, characteristically, no response at all. India's Ministry of Defence and the Indian Navy have offered no comment — and the silence is itself the most eloquent rebuttal. A credible nuclear deterrent does not require confirmation on Pakistani television. It requires the adversary to believe it exists, and to act accordingly. By that measure, Hilaly's panic — real or performed — is itself evidence that India's deterrent is working precisely as designed.
The strategic community's quiet read, shared across defence think tanks in Delhi, is that India's submarine-based deterrent capability is robust and growing, regardless of whether the specific number is 12 or some other figure. The Arihant class represents India's assured second-strike capability — the guarantee that even a first strike against India would invite catastrophic retaliation from beneath the ocean's surface. That capability is the whole point of the triad, and no amount of Pakistani television theatre changes the strategic mathematics.
Where This Goes Next
India Herald's forward read is this: expect Pakistan to escalate the rhetorical nuclear framing significantly in the coming weeks, particularly ahead of any scheduled IMF review or bilateral engagement with China. The victim narrative needs constant feeding — a single television appearance does not sustain a funding pitch. Watch for more "revelations" about Indian military capability from retired Pakistani officials, timed to coincide with diplomatic windows where Islamabad needs leverage.
Watch, too, for whether Beijing bites. China has its own reasons to amplify narratives about Indian military expansion — it serves the broader Sino-Indian competition. But Beijing is also increasingly transactional with Pakistan, and performative panic without strategic substance may not move the needle the way it once did. The real test is not whether Pakistan can generate headlines, but whether those headlines translate into hardware, credit lines, and diplomatic cover.
For India, the calculus remains unchanged: maintain ambiguity, continue the submarine programme, and let the adversary's anxiety do the signalling work. The quieter India stays about its triad, the louder Pakistan will have to scream — and the more that screaming will look like exactly what it is.
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Key Takeaways
- Former Pakistani ambassador Zafar Hilaly's claim of 12 Indian nuclear warheads on submarines is unverified by any official source and appears strategically timed, according to defence analysts.
- The claim surfaces during a period of acute Pakistani diplomatic isolation and economic distress, suggesting it serves a transactional purpose aimed at Beijing and Washington rather than a genuine security warning.
- India's deliberate silence on submarine deployment numbers is itself the deterrent — the ambiguity forces adversaries to assume the worst, which is the doctrine working as designed.
- Pakistan's pattern of playing the nuclear victim card has historically preceded requests for military aid and strategic investment, and this instance fits the template precisely.
- India's Arihant-class submarine programme represents a credible second-strike capability regardless of the specific warhead count, fundamentally altering the subcontinent's strategic balance.
By the Numbers
- Former Pakistani ambassador Zafar Hilaly claimed India has deployed 12 nuclear weapons on Arihant-class submarines — a figure no Indian or verified Western source has confirmed, as reported by Navbharat Times.
- Former Pakistani minister Abid Sher Ali separately threatened nuclear war on television if India stopped water under the Indus Waters Treaty, according to Navbharat Times — making two nuclear-rhetoric escalations from retired Pakistani officials in the same period.
The 5W+H: Who, What, When, Where, Why, How
- Who: Former Pakistani ambassador Zafar Hilaly, speaking on Pakistani television, as reported by Navbharat Times.
- What: Claimed India has deployed 12 nuclear weapons on its submarines, calling it a direct threat to Pakistan's security.
- When: July 2025, amid escalated India-Pakistan tensions following the Pahalgam attack fallout and the Indus Waters Treaty standoff.
- Where: Pakistani television broadcast, with the claim circulating widely in Indian and Pakistani media.
- Why: Analysts suggest the timing aligns with Pakistan's need to justify its strategic relevance to China and the US amid economic distress and diplomatic isolation.
- How: By framing India's submarine-based nuclear deterrent as an offensive escalation, the former envoy positions Pakistan as a victim requiring external military and financial support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has India officially confirmed deploying 12 nuclear warheads on submarines?
No. India has never publicly confirmed the number of warheads deployed on its Arihant-class submarines. The figure of 12 was claimed by former Pakistani ambassador Zafar Hilaly on Pakistani television, as reported by Navbharat Times, and remains unverified by any official Indian or independent Western source.
What is India's nuclear triad and why does it matter?
India's nuclear triad refers to its ability to deliver nuclear weapons from three platforms — land-based missiles, aircraft, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The submarine leg, represented by the Arihant-class SSBNs, provides assured second-strike capability — meaning India could retaliate even after absorbing a first nuclear strike, making deterrence credible.
Why is Pakistan raising alarm about Indian submarines now?
Analysts suggest the timing coincides with Pakistan's acute economic distress, diplomatic isolation following the Pahalgam attack fallout, and its need to justify continued Chinese and American strategic support. The victim narrative historically precedes requests for military aid and investment.
What are the Arihant-class submarines?
The Arihant class is India's fleet of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). INS Arihant was commissioned in 2016, INS Arighat followed, and additional vessels are reportedly under construction. They carry K-15 Sagarika and K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
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