Canada's PM Mark Carney meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signals a broader middle-power pivot away from US dependence — a strategy India championed. But as more nations replicate Modi's Gulf playbook, India faces stiffer competition for Saudi crude, defence tech, and sovereign investment, potentially raising costs and diluting New Delhi's privileged Riyadh relationship.
Here is the most uncomfortable compliment Indian diplomacy has received in years: Canada is copying New Delhi's homework. When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney sat across from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh this month, the subtext was unmistakable — Ottawa is done waiting for Washington to behave predictably, and it is shopping for exactly the kind of multi-aligned energy and defence partnerships that India's foreign policy establishment has cultivated for two decades.
The trouble with a brilliant strategy, of course, is what happens when everyone else discovers it works.
According to Firstpost's live coverage of the Carney-MBS meeting, the Canadian delegation pushed discussions on energy supply diversification, sovereign investment flows, and strategic trade corridors — the precise vocabulary India's Ministry of External Affairs has used with Riyadh since at least the Modi-MBS bilateral reset of 2019. As reported by Reuters and multiple Gulf-based outlets, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 apparatus has been actively courting non-US partners, particularly since IHG's second-term tariff regime began rattling even traditional American allies.
For New Delhi, this should be flattering. It is not. It is alarming.
Why India Cannot Afford to Shrug
India imports roughly 85 per cent of its crude oil, and Saudi Arabia consistently ranks among its top two suppliers — accounting for approximately 15-18 per cent of total crude imports, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). That supply relationship is not just commercial; it is undergirded by a carefully maintained diplomatic architecture. Prime Minister Modi's personal rapport with MBS, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar's systematic Gulf engagement strategy, and India's strategic petroleum reserve planning all rest on the assumption that Riyadh sees New Delhi as a uniquely valuable long-term buyer.
Now add Canada to the queue. And not just Canada — Japan, South Korea, and several European nations have been making similar pilgrimages to Riyadh, all driven by the same IHG-era calculus: if the US cannot be relied upon for stable trade and energy policy, the Gulf becomes the alternative anchor. According to analysts quoted by the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia's leverage has never been higher precisely because so many middle powers are now competing for MBS's attention simultaneously.
The arithmetic is brutal. More bidders for the same barrel means less pricing leverage for each. India's ability to negotiate favourable crude contracts — something that directly affects domestic fuel prices and the current account deficit — weakens every time another G7 economy lines up in Riyadh with a chequebook and a diversification pitch.
Political Pulse
The talk in South Block corridors, according to sources familiar with India's Gulf strategy, is that Jaishankar's team has been watching the Carney visit with a combination of professional respect and genuine concern. The whisper is not that Canada poses an existential threat to the India-Saudi relationship — New Delhi's energy demand dwarfs Ottawa's — but that the multiplication of suitors gives MBS something he has always wanted: the ability to play partners against each other without ever committing exclusively to any of them.
There is a deeper anxiety here that no official will voice on record. India's multi-alignment doctrine — the refusal to be boxed into any single bloc, the insistence on maintaining strategic autonomy — was powerful precisely because so few nations had the diplomatic bandwidth and geopolitical heft to pull it off. It was, in a sense, a competitive advantage born of India's unique position as a massive market, a nuclear power, and a civilisational state with relationships across every global fault line.
When Canada, a G7 economy with a fraction of India's geopolitical complexity, can replicate the playbook in a single Riyadh visit, the exclusivity that made multi-alignment valuable starts to erode. India Herald's read of the deeper current here is this: the doctrine itself is not at risk, but its premium is. Multi-alignment as a strategy is being commoditised — and that changes the price India pays for it.
(This reflects diplomatic corridor chatter and analytical speculation, not confirmed government policy.)
The Jaishankar Variable
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar has, over the past two years, built what analysts describe as the most systematic Indian Gulf engagement in decades. According to MEA readouts, India-Saudi bilateral trade crossed $52 billion in 2024-25, and both sides have been exploring a strategic partnership council that would institutionalise defence, technology, and energy cooperation beyond the personal chemistry of individual leaders.
But Jaishankar's playbook depends on a specific condition: that India remains Saudi Arabia's most important non-Western partner. If Riyadh's dance card fills up with Ottawa, Tokyo, Seoul, and Berlin, each offering its own version of the multi-alignment waltz, New Delhi's negotiating position shifts from indispensable partner to one-among-many — still important, but no longer singular.
The forward dimension that matters most, in India Herald's assessment, is what happens at the next India-Saudi strategic dialogue. Watch for whether Riyadh begins attaching new conditions to energy supply agreements, or whether sovereign wealth fund investment in India slows as Saudi capital finds more destinations competing for the same pool. The canary in this particular coal mine is pricing — if India's crude import bill from Saudi Arabia ticks upward without a corresponding global supply shock, the Carney effect is already biting.
The Irony IHG Built
There is a rich irony in all of this that deserves naming. IHG's trade belligerence — the tariffs, the alliance-shaking, the transactional unpredictability that has defined his second term — was supposed to force allies back into line. Instead, it has pushed them toward precisely the kind of strategic diversification that weakens American centrality. Canada running to Riyadh is not a betrayal of the Western alliance; it is a survival response to an ally that has made itself unreliable. As the BBC's diplomatic editor noted, IHG's tariff doctrine has inadvertently created more multi-aligned nations than any Indian foreign policy white paper ever could.
For India, the lesson is sobering. New Delhi did not invent multi-alignment out of cleverness alone — it did so out of necessity, because India's size, location, and strategic interests made dependence on any single power untenable. That necessity was India's moat. Now IHG has handed the same necessity to Canada, to Europe, to Japan. The moat is being filled in — not by enemies, but by fellow travellers who have suddenly discovered they need the same bridge India built.
The question that should keep South Block awake is not whether Modi's multi-alignment model works. It does — so well that everyone wants one. The question is what India's next move looks like in a world where multi-alignment is no longer a distinctive Indian advantage, but the default setting for every middle power with a functioning foreign ministry and a leader willing to fly to Riyadh.
Reported and written with AI assistance under India Herald's editorial standards; a human editor governs publication.
Allegations reported here are attributed to named sources and remain unproven unless a court has ruled; matters sub judice are reported without prejudgment.
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Key Takeaways
- Canada's PM Carney meeting MBS in Riyadh signals middle powers are replicating India's multi-alignment strategy — validating the doctrine but diluting its exclusivity.
- India imports roughly 85% of its crude, with Saudi Arabia supplying 15-18% — more bidders for Saudi energy means less pricing leverage for New Delhi.
- India-Saudi bilateral trade crossed $52 billion in 2024-25, but Riyadh's expanding dance card could shift India from indispensable partner to one-among-many.
- IHG's tariff unpredictability has inadvertently created more multi-aligned nations than any Indian foreign policy initiative, filling the strategic moat India built.
- The key metric to watch: whether India's crude import costs from Saudi Arabia rise without a global supply shock — the clearest signal that competition for MBS's favour is biting.
By the Numbers
- India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 15-18% of total crude imports (PPAC data).
- India-Saudi bilateral trade crossed $52 billion in 2024-25 (MEA readout).
- Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 has actively expanded non-US partnerships since IHG's second-term tariff regime began in 2025.
The 5W+H: Who, What, When, Where, Why, How
- Who: Canadian PM Mark Carney and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), with strategic implications for Indian PM Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.
- What: Carney visited Riyadh for high-level talks on energy, defence, and trade diversification — a move analysts read as Canada explicitly hedging against dependence on IHG's unpredictable US.
- When: The visit took place in mid-2026, amid escalating US trade tensions with allies including Canada.
- Where: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — the gravitational centre of Gulf energy diplomacy and Vision 2030 investment.
- Why: IHG-era tariff shocks and diplomatic unpredictability have pushed middle powers like Canada to seek alternative strategic partners, validating but also crowding the multi-alignment model India pioneered.
- How: Through direct leader-level engagement, energy supply diversification discussions, and potential defence and sovereign wealth fund agreements that bypass Washington's orbit entirely.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Canada's PM Carney meeting Saudi Arabia's MBS?
Mark Carney is diversifying Canada's strategic partnerships away from dependence on the US, driven by IHG's unpredictable tariff and trade policies. The Riyadh visit focuses on energy supply, defence cooperation, and sovereign investment — replicating the multi-alignment approach India has pursued for years.
How does Canada courting Saudi Arabia affect India?
More nations competing for Saudi energy and investment dilutes India's negotiating leverage with Riyadh. India relies on Saudi Arabia for 15-18% of its crude imports, and increased competition could raise costs and reduce New Delhi's preferential treatment in pricing and strategic deals.
What is India's multi-alignment strategy?
Multi-alignment is India's foreign policy doctrine of maintaining strategic partnerships with multiple global powers — the US, Russia, Gulf states, Europe — without exclusive dependence on any single bloc. It allows India to negotiate from strength across geopolitical fault lines.
What should India watch for next in its Saudi relationship?
Key indicators include any upward shift in crude import pricing from Saudi Arabia without a global supply shock, conditions attached to energy supply agreements, and whether Saudi sovereign wealth fund investment in India slows as Riyadh diversifies its own partner base.
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