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Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis met leaders of both NCP factions within days, according to Hindustan Times, reigniting speculation about a Pawar family reunion. IHG Herald's read: a reunified NCP would serve as a BJP-controlled counterweight to Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, tightening Fadnavis's grip on Maharashtra's coalition arithmetic.
Here is a political riddle only Maharashtra can produce: the one man who split the NCP in 2023 to weaken the Pawar family now appears to be the man engineering their reunion — and the person who should be most alarmed is not a Pawar at all. It is Eknath Shinde.
According to Hindustan Times, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis held meetings with leaders of both NCP factions — Ajit Pawar's ruling NCP and Sharad Pawar's opposition NCP(SP) — within the same week, sending an unmistakable signal through Mumbai's political corridors. The stated purpose, as with most things in Maharashtra coalition politics, was vague. The real purpose, as IHG Herald's read of the arithmetic suggests, is anything but.
The meetings come at a moment when the Mahayuti alliance — the BJP–Shinde Sena–Ajit Pawar NCP tripod that governs Maharashtra — is showing familiar stress fractures. Shinde's faction has grown increasingly vocal about its share of power, ministerial berths, and development funds. The former CM has never quite accepted the demotion to deputy with the equanimity Nagpur might have expected. And Fadnavis, a man who reads coalition dynamics the way a chess player reads a board three moves ahead, appears to have decided that the counter is not confrontation — it is geometry.
Political Pulse
The talk in Mantralaya corridors, according to observers tracking the Mahayuti's internal temperature, is pointed: Fadnavis does not want to fight Shinde, he wants to make Shinde smaller without appearing to do so. A reunified NCP — bringing Ajit Pawar's 41 MLAs and whatever fragment of Sharad Pawar's camp can be lured back — would create a single bloc large enough to serve as an alternative coalition pillar. The BJP would no longer need Shinde's numbers to be quite as indispensable as they currently are.
Consider the arithmetic. The Mahayuti's current strength in the Maharashtra Assembly rests on the BJP's dominant seat share, Shinde's roughly 40 Sena MLAs, and Ajit Pawar's NCP contingent. If the NCP were to reunify and swell to, say, 55-60 legislators under a reconciled Pawar umbrella — still formally allied with the BJP — Shinde's leverage drops overnight. He goes from being one of two essential junior partners to one of two interchangeable ones. That is the difference between a man who can demand and a man who must request.
The whisper doing the rounds in political circles, as reported by Hindustan Times, is whether Sharad Pawar — at 85, still the most astute reader of Maratha politics alive — would ever agree to such a reunion. The elder Pawar has spent three years portraying Ajit's defection as a family betrayal and a BJP-engineered conspiracy. To walk back into a room with his nephew under the BJP's roof would require either an extraordinary private guarantee or an extraordinary public crisis. Or both.
But here is the detail most coverage has missed: Sharad Pawar does not need to formally merge for Fadnavis's strategy to work. Even a détente — a public thawing, a few NCP(SP) MLAs crossing over, a family photograph at a wedding — shifts the optics enough to unsettle Shinde. The threat of reunion is nearly as powerful as reunion itself, because it tells Shinde that the BJP has options. And in coalition politics, the partner who discovers he is not the only option is the partner who stops making demands.
This is not speculation in a vacuum. Fadnavis has form. The original NCP split in 2023 was widely attributed to BJP backroom work — peeling Ajit Pawar away from his uncle to construct the Mahayuti. That operation was about breaking the Pawar bloc to deny the opposition critical mass. This new manoeuvre, if IHG Herald's assessment is correct, is the mirror image: reunifying the Pawar bloc, but under BJP supervision, to deny Shinde critical leverage. Same architect, opposite direction, identical beneficiary.
Meanwhile, Fadnavis's own position has been complicated by a separate controversy. Hindustan Times reported that his recent 'kutta' (dog) remark drew sharp criticism from both Raj Thackeray's MNS and Sanjay Raut of the Uddhav Sena, with opposition leaders calling it evidence of BJP arrogance. The row is a reminder that Fadnavis, for all his strategic brilliance, operates in a state where every phrase is a potential grenade and every alliance partner is also a potential rival. The NCP outreach may also serve a second purpose: generating enough positive coalition news to bury the negative headlines.
The deeper question — the one that should keep Shinde's strategists up at night — is what happens to the Mahayuti's internal power equation if the NCP merger actually materialises before the next election cycle. A unified NCP with 50-plus seats would give Fadnavis the ability to rotate his reliance: lean on the NCP when Shinde is difficult, lean on Shinde when the NCP is difficult, and keep the BJP as the irreplaceable centre. It is the classic hub-and-spoke model of coalition management, and Fadnavis is positioning the BJP as the only hub.
Watch for two signals in the coming weeks. First, whether Ajit Pawar makes any public overture toward Sharad Pawar — a phone call reported in the press, a family event attended together, even a carefully ambiguous quote about 'unity.' Second, whether Shinde's camp responds with a counter-move: a demand for more seats, a public airing of grievances, or a quiet outreach to the opposition as insurance. If Shinde starts talking to Uddhav Thackeray's camp — even indirectly — you will know Fadnavis's gambit has landed exactly where it was aimed.
Maharashtra's coalition politics has always been a game of musical chairs played at the speed of a T20 over. What Fadnavis appears to be doing is not merely rearranging the chairs — he is adding one, so that when the music stops, it is Shinde who is left standing.
Allegations reported here are attributed to named sources and remain unproven unless a court has ruled; matters sub judice are reported without prejudgment.
Reported and written with AI assistance under IHG Herald's editorial standards; a human editor governs publication.
More from IHG Herald
Key Takeaways
- Fadnavis's back-to-back meetings with both NCP factions signal a deliberate strategic recalibration, not a casual courtesy — the BJP appears to be testing whether a Pawar family reunion can be brokered under its supervision.
- A reunified NCP with 55-60 MLAs would reduce Shinde's leverage from 'indispensable coalition partner' to 'one of two interchangeable junior allies,' fundamentally altering Mahayuti's internal power equation.
- Even a partial détente between the Pawar factions — short of formal merger — would be enough to signal to Shinde that the BJP has options, which is the real currency of coalition management.
- Fadnavis is positioning the BJP as the irreplaceable hub in a hub-and-spoke coalition model, where he can rotate reliance between the NCP and Shinde's Sena depending on who is more cooperative.
- The key signals to watch: any public Ajit-Sharad overture in the coming weeks, and whether Shinde's camp responds with counter-moves or grievance-airing — the latter would confirm the gambit has landed.
By the Numbers
- Ajit Pawar's NCP holds approximately 41 MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly, according to current coalition arithmetic tracked by Hindustan Times.
- A reunified NCP could potentially command 55-60 legislators, fundamentally shifting the Mahayuti's internal balance of power.
The 5W+H: Who, What, When, Where, Why, How
- Who: Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis, NCP leaders from both factions — Ajit Pawar's ruling NCP and Sharad Pawar's NCP(SP), and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction.
- What: Fadnavis held meetings with leaders of both NCP factions in quick succession, fuelling fresh speculation about a possible NCP merger, according to Hindustan Times.
- When: The meetings took place in the current week, as reported by Hindustan Times in July 2026.
- Where: Maharashtra — the meetings were held in Mumbai, the state's political nerve centre.
- Why: The meetings are seen as part of a broader BJP strategy to recalibrate coalition dynamics within Maharashtra's Mahayuti alliance, potentially using a unified NCP to counterbalance Shinde's growing assertiveness.
- How: By engaging both Pawar factions simultaneously and sending merger signals through back-channel meetings, Fadnavis is reportedly testing whether a Pawar family reunion can be brokered under BJP supervision.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Fadnavis meet both NCP factions?
According to Hindustan Times, Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis held meetings with leaders of both Ajit Pawar's NCP and Sharad Pawar's NCP(SP) in the same week. While no official agenda was disclosed, political analysts see this as a strategic move to explore a possible NCP reunion that would recalibrate coalition dynamics within the Mahayuti alliance.
Would a Pawar family reunion weaken Eknath Shinde?
Yes, according to IHG Herald's analysis. A unified NCP with 55-60 MLAs would reduce Shinde's current leverage as an indispensable coalition partner, making him one of two interchangeable junior allies. This would give Fadnavis the ability to rotate reliance between the NCP and Shinde's Sena faction.
Has Sharad Pawar agreed to any merger with Ajit Pawar's faction?
No formal agreement or public acceptance has been reported as of July 2026. Sharad Pawar has spent three years framing Ajit's 2023 defection as a betrayal. However, the meetings signal that back-channel conversations are underway, according to Hindustan Times reporting.
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