A cliffhanger in chhattisgarh favors the Congress. In Madhya Pradesh, two polls forecast a landslide victory for the bharatiya janata party (BJP). A closer-than-expected race in rajasthan, where the incumbent has been defeated every time in the previous 25 years. In telangana, the challenger congress and the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) are neck and neck. In Mizoram, a hung parliament with a regional group likely to emerge as kingmaker.

These were the main findings of a slew of exit polls issued on wednesday following the conclusion of the five-state assembly elections, which are largely seen as a virtual qualifier for the lok sabha elections set for next summer. The findings will be made public on Sunday.

Exit polls in telangana and chhattisgarh mostly agreed on the outcome, but they differed greatly in the critical heartland states of rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Polls in Mizoram anticipated that the struggle would be fought mostly between the ruling Mizo National Front and the Zoram People's Movement, with the congress a distant third.

The outcome of the votes in five states, the final major electoral exercise before the lok sabha elections in 2024, would have a huge influence on both party narratives in the run-up to the lok sabha elections. It will also define the dynamics with the 28-party indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), formed only weeks before the elections.

Three of the five states — rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and chhattisgarh — also had bipolar battles between the bjp and the congress, providing an opportunity to put the two national parties' capabilities to the test as they compete for about a third of all lok sabha seats next year.

To be sure, exit polls are not always reliable and have frequently been incorrect in previous elections, particularly in states with varied demographics, castes, and communities. They are, nonetheless, valuable in recognizing patterns.

A majority of exit polls in Madhya Pradesh, the largest state to vote, anticipated a fierce contest between the incumbent bjp and the congress – two gave the advantage to the congress, one to the bjp, and two predicted a dead heat. However, two other important polls — IndiaToday-AxisMyIndia and Today's Chanakya-News 24 — predicted a bjp sweep and a congress annihilation.
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SIBY JEYYA

01/12/2023 05:36 AM