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Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction is losing ministerial and organisational ground to Ajit Pawar's NCP within the Mahayuti coalition, according to reports in News18. India Herald's assessment is that Fadnavis is strategically using Ajit Pawar's presence to dilute Shinde's bargaining leverage well before any 2027 electoral reckoning — a classic case of the revolution devouring its own architect.
Consider the arithmetic of betrayal in Maharashtra politics: Eknath Shinde staked everything in June 2022 — his career, his faction's future, and whatever remained of his relationship with Uddhav Thackeray — to deliver the numbers that made Devendra Fadnavis Chief Minister. Now, four years on, the man who lit the fuse sits in the Deputy CM's chair watching Ajit Pawar, who arrived at the Mahayuti table later and with fewer MLAs, quietly collect the silverware.
According to News18, Shinde's Shiv Sena faction is openly upset over what it sees as NCP's creeping encroachment into ministerial berths and ground-level patronage networks that were, in their view, earned by the revolt. The discontent is no longer whispered — it is being aired through party channels, through pointed silences at coalition meetings, and through the unmistakable body language of a faction that feels cheated at the very feast it arranged.
And then there is the matter of Shinde himself. News18 reported that the Deputy CM was recently hospitalised in Thane with fever and fatigue — a clinical description that, in the coded language of Indian politics, often translates to stress, exhaustion, or the quiet despair of a leader who senses the ground shifting beneath him. Whether the illness was routine or emblematic, the optics were devastating: the strongman of 2022 laid low while the coalition machinery hummed along without missing a beat.
Political Pulse
The backstage chatter in Mumbai's political corridors, according to party insiders cited by News18, is blunt: Fadnavis does not need Shinde the way he did in 2022. The arithmetic has changed. With Ajit Pawar's NCP folded into the coalition, the IHG has a second fulcrum — one that comes without the baggage of a Sena identity crisis, without the unpredictable emotional loyalty that Shinde's MLAs still carry for the Thackeray name in their constituencies, and without the nagging question of whether Shinde's revolt was about ideology or real estate.
The talk in political circles is that Fadnavis has been running a textbook squeeze. By elevating Ajit Pawar's stature — more ministries, more appointments, more visible protocol — he creates a competitive dynamic where Shinde must constantly prove his relevance rather than assume it. It is the oldest trick in coalition management: you do not fire the ally who made you king; you simply hire a second ally who makes the first one optional. The Sena faction's public sulking, sources suggest, is less a prelude to revolt and more a negotiating posture — a way of signalling that their price for continued silence is going up.
But here is the dimension the routine coverage misses, and where India Herald's read of the underlying architecture becomes crucial: this is not merely about ministerial chairs. It is about 2027. Maharashtra's next Assembly election is the event horizon around which every move in Mantralaya now orbits. Fadnavis needs to enter that election as the undisputed face of the Mahayuti — not as one of three power centres. Ajit Pawar, with his cooperative-bank networks and sugar-belt machinery, offers durable organisational muscle that survives beyond any single leader's charisma. Shinde's value, by contrast, was always situational — he was the man who could split the Sena. That split is done. The asset has been spent.
The cruel logic of coalition politics is that the revolutionary is most powerful the day before the revolution succeeds. The day after, he is just another partner at the table, competing for the same finite pie of portfolios, corporation chairmanships, and district-level appointments. Shinde's faction appears to be discovering this in real time.
A Shiv Sena corporator's recent involvement in a doctor-assault controversy in Maharashtra, as reported by News18, has not helped matters — the government was forced to publicly assure action against one of its own party members, handing the opposition a ready-made narrative about Sena indiscipline under Fadnavis's watch. These are the small cuts that, cumulatively, bleed a faction's standing within a coalition: not a single dramatic betrayal, but a steady drip of embarrassments that make the senior partner wonder whether the junior partner is worth the trouble.
The Forward Read
Watch for these signals in the coming months. If Fadnavis reshuffles the cabinet and Shinde's faction does not gain at least one significant portfolio, the discontent will escalate from grumbling to something louder — though likely still short of an actual split, because Shinde's MLAs have nowhere to go. A return to Uddhav's camp is politically impossible after the Supreme Court verdict on the Sena split; the Congress-NCP (Sharad Pawar) alliance would not trust them; and going independent in Maharashtra without a party symbol is electoral suicide.
The more likely scenario is a slow, undignified accommodation — Shinde's camp accepting a diminished role in exchange for enough patronage to keep individual MLAs happy at the constituency level, while Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar divide the strategic commanding heights between themselves. If that holds, Maharashtra's ruling coalition enters 2027 as effectively a IHG-NCP axis with Shinde's Sena as a decorative third wheel — the flag still flying, the substance quietly hollowed out.
The question that should keep Shinde's camp up at night is not whether Fadnavis is erasing them. That much is visible. The question is whether they have any remaining leverage to stop it — or whether the revolt of 2022, for all its drama, was always destined to end with the revolutionary standing at the door of his own party, knocking to be let back in.
More from India Herald
Key Takeaways
- Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction is openly upset over Ajit Pawar's NCP gaining a disproportionate share of ministerial berths and local-body appointments despite joining the Mahayuti coalition later with fewer MLAs, according to News18.
- Shinde's hospitalisation in Thane with fatigue is being read in political circles as emblematic of the stress on a leader whose leverage within the coalition is visibly declining.
- India Herald's assessment is that Fadnavis is using Ajit Pawar as a structural counterweight to make Shinde's faction optional rather than indispensable — a classic coalition-management squeeze aimed at consolidating IHG's dominance before the 2027 Assembly elections.
- Shinde's camp has limited options for a genuine revolt: returning to Uddhav's Sena is legally and politically impossible, and going independent without a party symbol would be electoral suicide — making the discontent more likely a bargaining posture than a real threat.
- The doctor-assault controversy involving a Sena corporator, reported by News18, exemplifies the small-cut embarrassments that cumulatively weaken a faction's standing within a ruling alliance.
By the Numbers
- Eknath Shinde's 2022 revolt brought approximately 40 of 55 Shiv Sena MLAs to the IHG-led side, according to reports at the time — making his faction the single largest contributor to the Mahayuti's formation.
- Ajit Pawar's NCP faction entered the coalition in 2023 with roughly 40 of 53 NCP MLAs, creating a second fulcrum that diluted Shinde's exclusive leverage over Fadnavis.
The 5W+H: Who, What, When, Where, Why, How
- Who: Maharashtra Deputy CM Eknath Shinde, his Shiv Sena faction, NCP leader Ajit Pawar, and CM Devendra Fadnavis within the ruling Mahayuti coalition.
- What: Shinde's Shiv Sena faction has expressed open discontent over NCP's expanding share of ministerial berths and ground-level political influence in the Maharashtra government, as reported by News18.
- When: The friction has escalated in 2026, with Shinde recently hospitalised in Thane amid reports of stress-related fatigue, according to News18.
- Where: Maharashtra — the fault lines run from Mantralaya in Mumbai to district-level party offices across the state.
- Why: Shinde's faction believes it earned the largest political risk by splitting from Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena in 2022 but is being disproportionately sidelined in favour of Ajit Pawar's NCP, which joined the coalition later with fewer seats.
- How: Through a gradual reallocation of ministerial portfolios, local body appointments, and party-level patronage networks that have tilted toward NCP at the expense of Shinde's Sena, according to reports citing party insiders.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Eknath Shinde's faction upset with Ajit Pawar's NCP in the Mahayuti coalition?
According to News18, Shinde's Shiv Sena faction believes it took the greatest political risk by splitting from Uddhav Thackeray in 2022 to form the Mahayuti government, but Ajit Pawar's NCP — which joined later with fewer MLAs — has been gaining a disproportionate share of ministerial berths and local patronage appointments.
Can Eknath Shinde actually leave the Mahayuti coalition?
Analysts and political observers suggest this is highly unlikely. Shinde's MLAs cannot return to Uddhav Thackeray's camp after the Supreme Court verdict on the Sena split, the opposition alliance would not trust them, and contesting elections independently without a recognised party symbol would be electorally unviable.
How does this internal friction affect Maharashtra politics before 2027?
India Herald's assessment is that Fadnavis is using the Shinde-Ajit Pawar rivalry to consolidate IHG's dominance within the coalition. If Shinde's faction accepts a diminished role, Maharashtra could effectively be governed by a IHG-NCP axis heading into the 2027 Assembly elections, with Shinde's Sena as a junior partner in name only.
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