Credit rating agency ICRA said in its new report on monday that India's GDP growth is estimated to be 6.9 percent in the march quarter (Q4 FY25). This estimate is lower than the estimate released by the National Statistics office (NSO) in february, in which Q4 growth was considered to be 7.6 percent.
Full year growth in FY25 may be limited to 6.3 percent
ICRA believes that India's economic growth rate may be 6.3 percent in the entire financial year 2024-25. Whereas NSO had said in february that GDP growth would be 6.5 percent in FY25. If the NSO estimate is to be considered accurate, then the growth of the march quarter should be 7.6 percent, which now looks difficult.
Decline possible in FY25 compared to FY24
According to ICRA, GDP growth was 9.2 per cent in FY2023-24, but it is likely to fall sharply in FY2024-25. This decline may be mainly due to the disparity in private consumption and investment activities.
What did ICRA's Chief Economist say?
ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nair, while talking to PTI, said that private consumption and investment activities did not have the same pace in the fourth quarter. One reason for the slowdown in investment has also been the uncertainty regarding tariffs.
service exports good, but export of goods fell
The report also states that service exports have shown consistent double-digit growth, while merchandise exports, which had increased in December, have now gone into decline in the march quarter.
Government data will come on 31 May
Now all eyes are on 31 May 2025, when NSO will release provisional GDP data for the march quarter and the entire FY25. Only then will it be decided whether ICRA's estimate proves correct or the government's data turns out to be more promising..jpg)
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