bihar didn’t just vote. It delivered a message — loud, unmistakable, and ruthless.
Despite two decades of anti-incumbency, despite political fatigue, despite endless alliances, breakups, and ideological circles, early election trends show bihar voters rushing once again toward Nitish Kumar’s nda — almost as if the ballot box itself remembers history better than politicians do.
By mid-morning, the nda was not merely passing the majority mark… it was cruising past it, smashing its ambitious “160 paar” target with the calm of a coalition that knew the ground reality long before exit polls did.
And the opposition?
Lagging. Struggling. Searching for a narrative as the numbers kept slipping away.
🟥 THE nda TSUNAMI: A LANDSLIDE IN SLOW MOTION
From the moment counting began at 8 AM, postal ballots tilted sharply toward the nda — almost a foreshadowing of the storm to come.
By 10:30 AM:
JD(U) was emerging as the single-largest party,
BJP was running neck-and-neck, refusing to be the “junior partner,”
The alliance appeared to be comfortably above the halfway mark in the 243-seat assembly.
This isn’t a victory.
This is dominance.
It’s what happens when the ruling coalition enters the ring not to win — but to crush doubt.
🟧 THE OPPOSITION MELTDOWN: RJD SLIPS, congress SINKS
The last election’s single-largest party — the RJD — struggled to even replicate its previous momentum.
As for the congress, contesting 61 seats, the leads spoke for themselves:
“Weak link” wasn’t an accusation.
It was arithmetic.
While both RJD and congress insist the picture could change as counting progresses, the early trendline had already drawn its own judgment:
The Mahagathbandhan wasn’t rising — it was unraveling.
🟦 BJP VS JD(U): THE BATTLE FOR “BIG BROTHER”
The bjp had insisted on equal seat-sharing.
JD(U) had decades of dominance behind it.
Early trends showed something unusual:
Both were neck-and-neck.
For the first time in years, the question wasn’t just “Will nda win?”
It was:
“Who leads bihar within the nda now?”
The internal power equations of patna may shift dramatically after these numbers settle.
But one thing is already clear:
The NDA’s house is strong enough to argue inside it.
🟩 WHY IS nda STILL WINNING AFTER 20 YEARS?
ASK BIHAR’S VOTERS — THEY REMEMBER EVERYTHING.
Here’s where it gets brutally real — and deeply political, but still factual as a matter of voter sentiment.
For two decades, Bihar’s electorate has displayed a strange resilience:
Even with anti-incumbency, old enough to vote, many voters still say:
“We cannot afford to go back.”
This doesn’t mean every voter is thrilled with Nitish Kumar.
Far from it. They have complained, protested, and criticised.
But the political memory of bihar is unique.
To many voters, elections in bihar aren’t just about choosing a government.
They are about avoiding the past.
A past associated — in public perception — with fear, instability, and stagnation.
A past repeatedly weaponised in political discourse.
Whether one agrees or not, whether exaggerated or accurate, that perception exists — and today, it’s shaping the ballot.
🟫 THE HARSH TRUTH: MANY bihar VOTERS SEE THIS election AS PREVENTION, NOT CHOICE
Politics is about narratives.
And bihar has one of the strongest, simplest, and most emotionally charged narratives in India:
“Better the devil you know than the chaos you remember.”
Voters who grew up in the 90s — and even those who only heard stories of it — often frame their choice not as a vote for nitish kumar,
but a vote against what they believe the alternative represents.
That fear, that history, that memory — it overrides anti-incumbency like nothing else.
And the numbers you see today are the reflection of that psychology playing out at scale.
🟪 FINAL WORD
bihar didn’t vote for a party today.
It voted for stability.
Or at least, its definition of it.
The NDA’s early landslide isn’t just a political victory.
It’s a sociological statement.
Politics may change.
Alliances may shift.
Narratives may evolve.
But in bihar, there’s one truth the ballot box keeps repeating:
“We have seen worse. And we’re not going back.”
And that, more than trends or tallies or tv panels, explains why — even after 20 years — nitish kumar still walks tall.
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