Exit polls have been a critical weathervane in the political theatre that has characterized key poll contests ever since the American pollster Warren Mitofsky conducted the first one in 1967 for the Kentucky governor’s contest. Individual polls may get it wrong sometimes, for sure, but a wider poll of exit polls averaging out the findings of all key pollsters more often than not, does provide a sense of the direction in which the people’s mood is moving.
BJP victory in rajasthan (which would be part of the state’s historical pattern of replacing incumbents) and a tight margin call in madhya pradesh (going against the grain of 20 years of anti-incumbency) would first and foremost indicate that prime minister Modi’s brand appeal retains its electoral potency, even in local contests.
After two decades of incumbency in madhya pradesh, few gave bjp a chance even three months ago. Despite that, a bjp resurgence in the state showcases the inherent strengths of the party’s cadre. mp was the original bastion of the Sangh, long before even Gujarat. If the polls are right, then they indicate that bjp managed to overcome internal differences and galvanise its core cadres, in sharp contrast to what happened in karnataka just three months ago. To a lesser extent, this is true in rajasthan as well.
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