According to a Moneycontrol report, if india doesn't negotiate a trade agreement with the united states that offers lower tariffs, it could lose up to USD 5 billion in exports to Vietnam. india shipped almost USD 76 billion worth of goods to the united states in 2023. However, vietnam only exports roughly USD 5.4 billion worth of such commodities, so even under the worst-case situation, the risk of direct competition is minimal.

India presently exports more than vietnam to the united states, where they both sell 161 comparable goods valued at over USD 5 million apiece.  Vietnam could only reasonably compete with india in roughly USD 5.4 billion of the USD 22 billion total U.S. commerce in these goods. Furthermore, if you take a deeper look at products that both nations sell in great quantities and at comparable costs, India's possible losses are probably far lower, roughly USD 353 million.

Jewelry, Linen, and Shrimp: india Is Under Pressure to Export
 
The frozen prawns and shrimp pose one of the worst threats to India's exports.  Vietnam sold USD 290 million of these to the united states in 2023, while india sold over USD 1.81 billion.  However, India's shrimp exports might plummet to just USD 224 million if the united states grants vietnam lower tariff rates. One would represent a possible loss of around USD 1.6 billion in one category alone.
 
Kitchen and bathroom linens might lose up to USD 280 million, and jewelry could lose up to USD 231 million. These are just two more indian products that could be affected.  Vietnam and india both cater to comparable American consumers in each of these sectors.

Trump's New Trade Deal
This change comes after trump announced a new trade agreement with vietnam on July 2 that reduces Vietnam's export duties to 20%. This occurred right before the July 9 deadline, which marks the beginning of a more stringent U.S. trade policy.
 
Rerouted or "trans-shipped" commodities into the united states will be subject to a 40% tax under the new regulations.  The new deal shields vietnam from the 46% tariff that was initially planned.  However, unless it swiftly negotiates a preferential trade pact with the united states, india may still be subject to a 26% tax.

On social media, trump wrote, "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam." india has yet to finalize a new trade agreement with Washington, which clearly disadvantages its main exports as compared to Vietnam.

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