A declassified National Intelligence Estimate based on "developments since 1989" was published in 1993 and was titled India-Pakistan: Prospects for war in the 1990s. It listed the elements that could lead to a full-scale conflict between the two nations and who stands to lose the most.
According to those who prepared the NIE, there was a 20% probability of war between india and pakistan, and "leaders of both countries wanted to avoid war." According to the document's opening statement, "India has no strategic interest in initiating a war with Pakistan."
Warning about nuclear war between india and Pakistan
Although the drafters concluded that neither country prioritized war, they raised concerns about it occurring because of "flashpoints" like the kashmir disputes, "internal meddling," and "communal incidents." Due to "miscalculations, including intelligence failures that could trigger a premature attack," this could ultimately raise the likelihood of conflict.
It also issued a warning that "the breakdown of nuclear deterrence" could result in the two sides using nuclear weapons if the crisis worsens.
"Either military could develop hair-trigger responses that would escalate quickly to the nuclear level, and the time available to national leaders and external powers to defuse tensions would rapidly compress," it stated.
The CIA report goes on to say that things could get out of control if the military balance shifts in India's favor. It claims that India's increasing military might make Islamabad feel "even more threatened," adding that it "could have such destabilizing consequences as Pakistan's 'open' deployment of nuclear weapons."
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