The international space industry is on the path of growth, but new research shows that a rapid increase in rocket launches will damage the ozone layer. Hundreds of rockets are launched around the world each year, many of which are sent into space as part of commercial companies and nation-state space programs. These are launched from about 20 locations, almost all in the Northern Hemisphere, and currently the highest launch rates are from the US, China, new zealand and Russia.
Our latest research identifies the tipping point when more rocket launches will start causing problems. Our findings suggest that once rates reach 2,000 launches per year - an almost tenfold increase from last year - the current improvement in the ozone layer will slow down. We argue that with caution we can avoid this future damage. The economic benefits of industry growth can be achieved, but it will require a collective effort.
Rocket launches thin the ozone layer
The ozone layer protects life on Earth from harmful solar ultraviolet (UV) rays. It is slowly recovering from the effects of chlorofluorocarbons and other harmful chemicals emitted over the past century, thanks to global cooperative agreements under the Montreal Protocol. The ozone layer is thinned by gases and particles emitted when rockets enter the atmosphere. So far, they do not cause much damage to the ozone layer, as there are relatively few launches each year.
Launches are steadily increasing
Launches are steadily increasing, however. There were 102 launches in 2019. By 2024, the number of launches worldwide will increase to 258. Even more launches are expected in 2025. For US-based launches, the number of rockets launched in 2023 is expected to triple by 2028. One reason for this increase is the effort to create satellite constellations of thousands of units located at low altitudes in Earth orbit. This requires multiple launches and is happening in multiple countries, run by multiple companies. Once in place, these satellites require continued launches to keep the supply of active satellites..jpg)
click and follow Indiaherald WhatsApp channel