The Modi government's decision to reverse its earlier stance and allow the continuation of leasing agreements between indian airlines (notably IndiGo) and Turkish Airlines. This U-turn came three months after the government had initially directed indigo to end its leasing arrangement with Turkish airlines by august 31, 2025, a decision made in May 2025.


1. Economic and Operational Necessity:

• indigo, India's largest airline, had been leasing two wide-body Boeing 777 aircraft from Turkish airlines since 2023, operating on Delhi-Istanbul and Mumbai-Istanbul routes. These aircraft, complete with pilots and crew, allowed indigo to handle more passengers than its narrow-body fleet, enhancing connectivity and revenue.

• The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) approval of the six-month extension (from august 31, 2025) was likely driven by the need to avoid operational disruptions. Without these leased aircraft, indigo faced potential route cuts, higher fares, and a loss of market share, which could have impacted India's aviation sector stability.


2. Pressure from industry and Stakeholders:

• The article suggests that the decision was influenced more by hard commercial realities than public clamor or social media outrage. Senior aviation industry executives noted that upholding the government's initial stance would have led to local carriers losing out on international competitiveness.

• The extension was subject to conditions laid down by the DGCA, indicating a compromise to balance national interests with operational continuity.

3. Reassessment of Geopolitical Stance:

• The initial tough stance in May 2025 may have been a response to geopolitical tensions, particularly Turkey's support for pakistan during recent India-Pakistan conflicts, which sparked public criticism and calls to boycott Turkish airlines (e.g., the "Boycott Turkey" movement). However, the government likely reassessed that severing ties would not significantly alter Turkey's stance and could harm India's aviation diplomacy.

• The U-turn suggests a realization that economic benefits outweighed symbolic gestures, especially as Turkey's role as a transit hub (e.g., Istanbul) remained valuable for indian carriers.

Pros of the U-Turn

1. Operational Stability for IndiGo:
The six-month extension ensures indigo can maintain its international routes, avoiding immediate losses estimated at millions of dollars and preserving jobs for pilots, crew, and ground staff.

2. Enhanced Connectivity:
Continued use of Turkish Airlines' Boeing 777s supports IndiGo's expansion into long-haul markets, benefiting indian travelers with cost-effective two-stop flights to europe and beyond via Istanbul.

3. Economic Benefits:
The partnership generates additional revenue for indigo and supports India's aviation sector, which is projected to handle 1 billion trips annually by 2023 (per PRS India). This aligns with the government's goal of boosting civil aviation under the UDAN scheme.

4. Diplomatic Flexibility:
Maintaining aviation ties could pave the way for future negotiations with turkey, potentially easing bilateral tensions and opening doors for trade or tourism (e.g., 300,000+ indian travelers to turkey in 2024).

Cons of the U-Turn

1. Public Backlash and Nationalism:
The decision may fuel criticism from nationalist groups and social media, as seen in the X thread (e.g., @OfficialAICVC's sarcastic "Lag raha hai Bhakto ko ek aur baap milne wala hai"). This could erode the government's image as a strong defender against perceived adversaries like Turkey.

2. Geopolitical Risks:
Continuing ties with Turkish airlines might be seen as softening India's stance against Turkey's support for pakistan, potentially straining relations with domestic security agencies (e.g., IB, RAW) and allies like the US, which also monitor Turkey's actions.

3. Dependence on Foreign Operators:
Leasing aircraft from Turkish airlines increases India's reliance on foreign entities, which could pose security risks (e.g., data sharing) and limit domestic aviation growth. The article notes the government’s earlier concern about Turkish dominance, which remains a valid long-term issue.

4. Regulatory Challenges:
The DGCA's conditional approval adds complexity, requiring ongoing oversight to ensure compliance. Any breach could lead to further policy reversals or legal disputes, disrupting operations again.
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SIBY JEYYA

30/08/2025 10:07 AM